Sunday sweats: five bets to add to your NFL Week 12 card



The house feasted on Thanksgiving in large part thanks to the outright victory of the three teams on the road.

The holiday slate didn’t hurt Discussion points– the pick’em went 2-1 ATS in the three games – but the damage was already done. last weekend Sunday sweats, combined with a few other proposal losses in a pair of Raiders’ game day sections, cut profits for the year by almost half.

It wouldn’t be a football season without adversity, however, and the rest of the Week 12 roster tomorrow is where I’ll start fighting.

Read below for this week’s bets in five different categories as part of the Sunday Sweats column. Bets placed outside of college and pro football pick’ems, including a weekly prop on the Raiders game on Sunday, will be tracked here.

Tatsy Total (6-5, $ 41.50): Chargers from Los Angeles to Denver Broncos over 47 (Circa Sports)

Neither the Chargers ‘nor the Broncos’ defense have lived up to expectations this season. That hasn’t really translated into the totals market as these teams have combined to drop under 14 of their 20 collective games this season, but there is still time. Predictions are clear today in Denver with the home side coming out of a bye, downplaying potential reasons why both teams’ attacks might not be at their best. Some punters don’t like to take control of division games, especially at this point in the season, but that’s not much of an issue here given the lack of history in this particular game. This is the first meeting between the teams with Chargers coach Brandon Staley at the helm, and it has radically changed everything, including the offensive philosophy.

Two-Team Teaser (10-2, $ 633.30): Miami Dolphins +8.5 and Pittsburgh Steelers +10-120 (William Hill)

Going through 3 and 7 in a low-scoring, tied type of game, the Dolphins are a shoo-in in any 6-point teaser for Sunday. There are a few other obvious traditional choices, dropping Jets from 2.5 to 8.5 and Packers from 1.5 to 7.5, but I’m not particularly confident in either. The Packers’ game could easily generate high scores and then minimize the value of extra points, while the Jets are, well, the Jets and should never be trusted. If the Steelers could get through the 10th instead of just to the 10th, then that would be a great teaser. But, as it stands, it might still be the better choice.

Moneyline Parlay (5-6, $ 667.74): Patriots, Buccaneers & Jaguars +366 (William Hill)

Did the Seahawks ruin all six losses in this category? Of course, we want it, after another 3-for-4 last week where Seattle’s pitiful performance against Arizona was the only loss. So the Seahawks are on probation for the week, even if their equal price to Washington is tempting, and it’s gone for a trio. William Hill has the best prices on these three sides. New England (-300) should be higher based on Tennessee’s injury situation. Tampa Bay (-170) is only a slim value but should close higher in Indianapolis. Jacksonville (+120) is the current best Moneyline price on the chart by my numbers. Sigh, as if trusting the Jaguars is better than trusting the Seahawks.

Player Prop (9-14, – $ 591.36): Lamar Jackson on 63.5 rushing yards -114 (Boyd Sports)

The Browns defense continues to get too much credit from the betting market despite struggling all season. This includes against the race where Cleveland scores 17e in the NFL DVOA ratings by Football Outsiders. And there is no doubt as to the identity of Baltimore’s best rushing option. It’s still Jackson, who should make up for lost time after missing last week’s game against Chicago. It’s a big game in the AFC North race, and both teams will do everything possible to be at their best. And the Ravens are at their best when their quarterback is constantly looking for ways to run.

Vegas Golden Knights right winger Mark Stone, right, warms up before Game 2 of a Stanley Cup Playoff series against the Minnesota Wild at T-Mobile Arena on Tuesday, May 18, 2021.

Non-Football Game (5-6, – $ 85.76): Vegas Golden Knights -124 vs. Edmonton Oilers (Circa Sports)

I usually try to limit the picks to Sunday’s action for this column, but it’s a big game tonight in Las Vegas and there is value for the home team. As much as it pains me to say with the futures positions on them in pretty much every market, Edmonton’s efficiency has really plummeted over the past month – certainly since they were +112 underdogs at T-Mobile Arena. before a 5-3 win on October 22. The Oilers have always been better than the Golden Knights, but that doesn’t mean much here given the latter’s improved health over the past week. With an almost full complement of players, this price in Vegas is not high enough. The Golden Knights should lay something like -140.

Sunday sweats since the start of the year: 35-33, $ 665.42

All-Time Weekend Betting Column: 210-195, $ 5,314.59

Previous bets pending: Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5 win -125; Dallas Cowboys win NFC East +150; Georgia 10-1 to win college football qualifiers; Baltimore Ravens 20-1 to win Super Bowl; Jon Rahm 12 against 1 to win the Masters 2022; Texas 50-1 to win NCAA 2022 tournament.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or

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