Vegas Pick’em: NFL Week 3 Winners Against Spread

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Chicago Bears quarterback Andy Dalton walks into the locker room with an unidentified coach during the first half of an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, September 19, 2021 in Chicago.

Counting and adjusting injuries each year is the most important aspect of the NFL handicap at any given point in the season.

It’s usually not as early as week 3. That’s what it feels like this year, however, with a handful of quarterbacks and an even greater number of other key players facing health issues afterward. the first two weeks of the season.

Some players will see all the uncertainty as a nuisance, but the best will see it as an opportunity. There is no widely available manual or number detailing each player’s value at the point of spread, leaving it to all bettors to determine the value for themselves.

Those who do it best will be handsomely rewarded. I’ll do my best for each game below, as I continue to pick each ATS game.

Week 2 turned out to be the rebound slate I was hoping for, as An overall record of 10-6 (4-2 on games, 4-2 on lean, 2-2 on guesses) brings the season total to 17-15.

Read below for picks from each match in Week 3, separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. The lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Games (5-6)

Carolina Panthers -7.5 vs. Houston Texans The Panthers’ defense has been the best in the NFL by a significant margin for two weeks, and is now feasting on a rookie third-round quarterback at Davis Mills. Combined with facing a freshman coach in his first Thursday Night Football slot, this is a great place for the Panthers where they should be in double digits.

Los Angeles Rams +1.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers The opening broadcast, which had knocked down the favorite, was more in line with my number. The Rams have been the league’s most impressive team for two weeks and, barring an injury, shouldn’t be a home underdog for any opponent – even the undefeated reigning Super Bowl champions.

Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Who would have thought that the market would present a low buying opportunity on back-to-back AFC champions so early in the season? There is still a significant gap between Kansas City and the rest of the NFL in terms of offensive EPA (expected points added) per game, which is more predictive going forward than a pair of disastrous defensive performances against two strong teams. .

Minnesota Vikings +2 vs. Seattle Seahawks A missed basket and a lost 2-0 fumble, the Vikings are no ordinary 0-2 team. If any of the outcomes were reversed, chances are this game would be a pick’em – more in line with where it belongs.

Green Bay Packers +3.5 in San Francisco 49ers San Francisco’s offense was very disappointing in a 17-11 victory over the Eagles last week, closer in efficiency than the score shown throughout. The 49ers’ defense is less of a question mark, but it has yet to encounter a Green Bay cap breach, which is part of the reason why this gap should not exceed 3.

New England Patriots -2.5 vs. New Orleans Saints The market that seems to be gradually moving towards the Saints gives me pause, but that may not take into account the fact that they are practically playing their third straight game on the road and are suffering enough significant defensive injuries. The Patriots’ defense, meanwhile, looks more like the 2019 edition that engulfed the league than last year’s mediocre unit.

Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. New York Giants The Giants aren’t affected enough by the cluster injury market along the offensive line, linebacker body and high school. The Falcons were the worst team in the NFL for two weeks, but their track record wasn’t so negative heading into the season as to make a positive regression likely.

Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 to Pittsburgh Steelers The Steelers injury report may not be the longest in the NFL, but it’s just the most important. With TJ Watt, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Haden, Devin Bush and several other players potentially running out of time, nothing more than 3 against a younger, healthier team is a gift.

Bend over (6-5)

Chicago Bears +7.5 at Cleveland Browns Contrary to popular belief, the Cleveland defense provides a soft landing point for Chicago rookie quarterback Justin Fields’ first career start. Browns rank 31st in the NFL in EPA defense per play. The extra half point is close to making it a game, but it wears off quickly in sports betting and +7 is a significant difference that is not as appealing.

Las Vegas Raiders -4 vs. Miami Dolphins It looks like this game is going to be a battle between Derek Carr and Jacoby Brissett, which makes supporting the home team a bit easier. But some caution can still be advised as the Dolphins are healthier overall and teams that suffered unbalanced losses like their 35-0 loss to the Bills last week are traditionally profitable investments next week.

Dallas Cowboys -4 vs. Philadelphia Eagles Based on this season alone, that line is too high as Philadelphia has surprisingly been above average in all areas on a per game basis. But the Eagles’ roster is still flawed and unproven and there is a better chance that they will regress while the Cowboys should have the better advantage.

Indianapolis Colts +5.5 vs. Tennessee Titans If Carson Wentz is playing, even on a pair of butt pegs, that line is undeniably swollen. It’s a more difficult proposition with Jacob Eason making his debut under center, but I’m willing to bet given that all statistical evidence points to these two teams being tied.

Riddles (6-4)

Buffalo Bills -7.5 vs. Washington Football Team With point pitcher Gregory Rousseau adding to what was already one of the NFL’s most talented defenses, the Bills are going to be increasingly difficult to score. Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke has performed better than expected in his brief starting career, but this defense will be the toughest he has faced.

Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals * Sighs. * The Jaguars could be the objectively terrible team of this year that continually costs me money. But with gaps of this magnitude, so be it. Arizona was a 2-point favorite there at the start of the season, and a 6-point favorite last week, making the current line smell a major overreaction in two games.

New York Jets +10.5 to Denver Broncos It’s the same non-confident overreaction reasoning as the game above. The Broncos were an 8.5-point favorite here in last week’s lookout line and a 5.5-point favorite going into the season, so a jump over 10 looks drastic no matter how bad the Jets are. played badly.

Baltimore Ravens -7.5 to Detroit Lions That number is perfectly fair, but it’s hard to shake memories of the Ravens regularly blowing up outclassed opponents. Over the past four seasons, they’ve gone 10-6 ATS with one or more touchdowns on the points spread.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.


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